The Fallacy of a Brokered Convention: A Pitt College Republicans Special

by Casey Rankin

Over the past few months, pundits in the media have openly fantasized about a scenario where no Republican presidential candidate earns the 1,144 delegates needed to win a first ballot nomination. This would plunge Republicans into what is known as a “brokered convention”, where all 2,286 delegates are free to vote however they please. It would also mean that the Republican nominee would not be chosen until August 30^th, which most political experts regard as being catastrophically late.

If you are a Republican and the above paragraph frightens you, worry not, the media is full of dramatic amateurs, who are ignorant of party rules, state by state polling,basic arithmetic, and intellectual honesty. Based on those factors, it is clear that Governor Mitt Romney will clinch the 1,144 delegates needed for nomination prior to the convention. Here we will go through each state, and based on party rules and available polling, attempt to make a realistic delegate allocation projection.

Current Delegate Count (As of March 14^th)

Romney: 496

Santroum: 236

Gingrich: 141

Paul: 67

March 17^th

Missouri Caucus: 52 Delegates Non-Binding Caucus (Proportional)

In the Missouri beauty contest vote held in early February, Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney 55%-25%. Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot however, and he will be for the caucus. So if we assume that

Gingrich peels 15% off of Santorum's total, we are left with results similar to what we saw in neighboring Kansas, with Santorum winning 40%-25%-15%. So taking the most negative possible projection for Romney, we can predict the delegates to be proportioned as something like, Santorum 35, Romney 12, Gingrich 5.

New Delegate Count

Romney: 508

Santorum: 271

Gingrich: 146

March 18^th

Puerto Rico Caucus: 23 Delegates Winner Take All

Given that Romney has won commanding majorities among Hispanics in every state or territory with a measurable sample, and has the endorsement of popular Puerto Rican Governor Luis Fortuno, he should win a lopsided victory here.

New Delegate Count

Romney: 531

Santorum: 271

Gingrich: 146

March 20^th

Illinois Primary: 69 Delegates Proportional by Congressional District

The most recent poll taken in Illinois shows Romney with a 35-31 lead over Santorum. Gingrich and Paul poll 12 and 7 percent respectively. Romney recently went on the air with a $1 million TV purchase, something Santorum won't be able to match. Given Romney's propensity for closing strong in Midwestern states, it is impossible for me to imagine Santorum winning here, and my bet is he loses by a number in the high single digits. In projecting the delegates, we can look to Michigan, while projecting it to go slightly more in Romney's favor, so something like 41-28 in Romney's favor, again trying to be cautious.

New Delegate Count

Romney: 572

Santorum: 299

Gingrich: 146

March 24^th

Louisiana Primary: 46 Delegates, Proptional

Most recently, polling showed a tight three way race: Santorum 25, Romney 21, Gingrich 20. I would expect the final results to be similar to Mississippi, where they finished 33-31-30, except for shifting some of Gingrich's support to Santorum based on momentum, for a delegate total of something like Santorum 21, Romney 15, Gingrich 10.

New Delegate Count

Romney 587

Santorum 320

Gingrich 156

April 3^rd

Wisconsin Primary: 42 Delegates, Winner Take All

Maryland Primary: 37 Delegates, Winner Take All

Washington D.C: 19 Delegates, Winner Take All

These three winner take all contests provide major opportunity for delegate pickups. Rick Santorum failed to qualify for the ballot in D.C, meaning those 19 delegates should easily go to Romney. Based on Maryland's ideology and demographics, which closely resemble New England, where Romney has yet to lose, it is tough to envision it going to Santorum, making those 37 delegates likely to go to Romney. Wisconsin is a bit tougher to project, but since the two closest states to them geographically and demographically, Ohio and Michigan, went to Romney narrowly, we will predict it to follow. This day looks likely to deliver a big prize for Romney, as he garners 99 delegates, while his opponents combine for zero.

New Delegate Count

Romney 686

Santorum 320

Gingrich 156

April 24^th

Pennsylvania Primary: 72 Delegates, Congressional District

New York Primary: 95 Delegates, Proportional, Winner Take All if someone reaches 50%

Connecticut Primary: 28 Delegates, Proptional, Winner Take All if someone reaches 50%

Rhode Island Primary: 19 Delegates, Proportional
Delaware Primary: 17 Delegates, Winner Take All

On the surface, April 24^th should be an outstanding day for Mitt Romney. To start with the small states, Romney will certainly win Delaware, giving him all of their 17 delegates. He will likely win Rhode Island with a percentage well over 50%, and where Ron Paul will likely finish in second, so being generous to Paul, we project a 13-6 split. I expect this case to also hold true in Connecticut, except that it becomes winner take all if someone is over 50%, which I would expect Romney to reach, giving him all 28 of their delegates. While no polling is available in these three states, Romney has yet to lose in a single New England state, and his margins have generally grown throughout the campaign. New York is also likely to give him a big boost. While the most recent poll shows Romney up only 38-31 over Santorum, the substantial number of undecideds figure to break Romney's way, especially when one consider that Romney and McCain combined for about 75% of the New York Primary vote in 2008. This may be an optimistic hedge, but Romney seems likely to edge 50% of the vote, giving him the big delegate prize of the night with 95 delegates. In Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania, Santorum currently leads by 18 points, a margin I would expect to tighten. However, to give Santorum the benefit of the doubt, lets project that margin holds, and he wins 45 of the 72 delegates, with the other 27 going for Romney. That gives us a nightly total of Romney 180, Santorum 45, Paul 6.

New Delegate Count

Romney 866

Santorum 365

Gingrich 156

Paul 73

May 8

North Carolina Primary: 55 Delegates, Proportional

Indiana Primary: 46 Delegates , Congressional District

West Virginia: 31 Delegates, Congressional District

After a brutal month, Santorum returns to more friendly territory. Given its proximity to Pennsylvania, its ultra conservative and impoverished demographic, I expect Santorum to sweep West Virginia, with Gingrich and Romney perhaps earning a few delegates, so project that as Santorum 25, Gingrich 4, Romney 2. Indiana should follow the pattern of most Midwestern states, which have gone for Romney by narrow margins. Also consider the fact that Santorum has gone through a brutal month, where he has only won one primary. So figure those delegates split in half, with each winning 23. North Carolina should be the most favorable for Romney, as its demographic has begun to look more like Florida than the other Southern states. I would still expect it to be close, but with Romney winning a delegate victory of about 25-20-10 (Romney-Santorum-Gingrich). Overall, it looks like Santorum has the advantage for the night, but not by much, with the following tally: Santorum 58, Romney 50, Gingrich 14.

New Delegate Count

Romney 916

Santorum 423

Gingrich 170

May 15

Nebraska Primary: 35 Delegates

Oregon Primary: 28 Delegates, Proportional

Nebraska is very typical of the states Santorum has done well in, and I would expect him to win a percentage near 50, making it likely he will carry virtually all of the states 35 delegates. Oregon figures to follow Washington, which was a close contest between Romney and Paul. It is also purely proportional, so Santorum might pull out a delegate or two. That one I would project something like 14-12-2 (Romney-Paul-Santorum). May 15^th ends with a tally of, Santorum 37, Romney 14, Paul 12.

New Delegate Count

Romney 930

Santorum 460

Gingrich 170

Paul 85

May 22^nd

Kentucky Primary: 45 Delegates, Proportional

Arkansas Primary: 36 Delegates, Proportional

While this landscape is favorable to Santorum, the proportional rules make it unlikely he will amass a significant delegate advantage. Kentucky seems to fall into Santorum's region of strength, so I think he will get something like a 25-12-8 advantage from it (Santorum-Gingrich-Romney). Arkansas figures to be a bit more Gingrich friendly, resulting in a closer three way race with the delegates being split 13-12-11 (Santorum-Gingrich-Romney). This gives us a tally of Santorum 38, Gingrich 24, Romney 19.

New Delegate Count

Romney 949

Santorum 498

Gingrich 194

Paul 85

May 29^th

Texas Primary, 155 Delegates, Proportional

The most recent Texas polling has Romney leading Santorum 32-30, with Gingrich at 19. If these numbers don't shift dramatically, then the delegates will be split heavily, with Romney winning around 65 , Santorum about 60 and maybe 30 for Gingrich. At this point Romney is in range of the delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the convention.

New Delegate Count

Romney 1,014

Santorum 558

Gingrich 224

Paul 85

June 5^th

California Primary: 172 Delegates, Winner Take All by Congressional District

New Jersey Primary: 50 Delegates, Winner Take All

South Dakota Primary: 28 Delegates, Proportional

Montana Primary: 26 Delegates, Proportional

New Mexico: 23 Delegates, Proportional

If the delegate estimates I have made to this point are even in the ball park, Romney is certain to lock up the nomination by June 5^th. He leads in California by over 20 points. With a lead that large it seems impossible that Santorum leads in any district. To be as fair and conservative as possible, I will just posit that he wins 4 of the states 53 districts for a delegate total of around 15, leaving Romney with 157, putting him over 1,144 and making him the 2012 Republican Nominee for President of the United States. New Jersey is a guaranteed Romney win, giving him all fifty of their delegates. South Dakota and Montana are both likely to go to Santorum by insubstantial margins, perhaps by a combined 28-22-2-2 (Santorum-Romney-Gingrich-Paul). New Mexico is likely to go overwhelmingly to Romney so give him about 17 delegates to 5 for Santorum. That puts our nightly total at :Romney 246, Santorum 48, Gingrich 2, Paul 2.

New Delegate Count

Romney 1,260, Republican Nominee

Santorum 606

Gingrich 226

Paul 87

June 26^th

Utah Primary: 40 Delegates, Winner Take All

Romney will win the Mormon State by over 90% of the vote. He will easily capture all 40 of the state's delegates.

Final Delegate Count

Romney 1,300, Republican Nominee

Santorum 606

Gingrich 226

Paul 87

In closing, while he is unlikely to do it before June, Romney should easily clear the 1,144 delegates necessary to be nominated on the first ballot of the convention. I project him finishing 156 delegates above the threshold, meaning that unless I made a massive mistake somewhere, he will be above what is needed to avoid any complaints about rules, procedure etc. at the convention. What is demonstrated even more clearly is that Santorum, and Gingrich, are unable to reach the threshold, and that all they can do is hope to throw the contest to a brokered convention, something that is unbelievably deleterious to the party's goal of defeating Barack Obama.