Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Mitt and Unity: Why the "47 Percent" Commentary Was More than a "Gaffe"

by Rick Hill


Recently the Romney campaign has faced criticism from voters of all parts of the political spectrum over comments made during a May fundraiser, in which Governor Romney blasted the 47 percent of the American population that does not pay federal income taxes.  Referring to them as “freeloaders,” Romney continued with the assertion that these voters will not support him anyways in the election, lopping off a huge portion of the electorate to which he will appeal.  I understand that the Governor was speaking at a fundraiser, amidst a couple hundred people firmly in support of him.  Looking at the issue from a more populist perspective, and seeking to give Governor Romney the benefit of the doubt, I still find myself still coming up short to support him on his comment.  Consider:

As a college student and a dependent of my parents, I work part-time and pay federal income tax.  However, most of the time it is returned to me at the end of the year, in the form of a tax return. Does this series of actions put me in with the 47 percent?

Let's be honest, Governor... money's tight when you're in your 20s.
I’m not the only college student in this country who works to make a financial dent in my education.  I’m also not the only conservative-leaning college student in that category.  The last thing I wish to be called is a “freeloader,” considering I do what I can to finance a horribly inflated college education without having to rob Peter to pay Paul at the very end.  I want to pay for my education the old way; however, I don’t want to be lumped into a category considered “unproductive” in the process.  With the ambition to get a job that makes an impact on American foreign relations directly out of my master’s program, as well as very low student debt, I don’t consider myself at the moment a particularly large burden on the American taxpayer.  If I’m not paying taxes on the bottom line at the moment, please be patient with me.

President Obama is by all means a divider, with his incendiary commentary regarding the rich and misguided statements against those with traditional cultural values.  Mitt Romney, through a candid comment made amongst a group of loyal supporters, positioned himself as someone no different.

Don't lose NASCAR fans, Governor... just don't.
I used to give Governor Romney credit for not stepping on his tongue while building relationships with the American middle class.  I understood that he was out of touch (comments related to being friends with NASCAR and NFL owners, yet not having a lot of personal interest in either sport, come to mind), but to make a comment that divides an electorate to which he was trying to appeal was beyond ill-advised.  I just heard on the Jerry Doyle Show last night that Romney now polls lower than Obama among NASCAR fans…  NASCAR fans?!?!?!  We’re talking about an interest group, mostly from the American South, who finds its niche among American culture through movies such as “Talladega Nights” and “Viva Las Vegas.”  If any group was expected to vote Republican in 2012, it was those frequenters of America’s answer to the Circus Maximus.  Anyone who believed Governor Romney was out of touch before the comments surfaced received quite the vindication afterwards.  I wanted him to be a “uniter” so fiercely… Unfortunately, even one video clip these days can leave the sourest of tastes in a voter’s mouth.  If Jerry Doyle speaks accurately, I’m baffled.

You can build all the support you want among groups in which you poll among the weakest; but once you’ve lost the base, you’ve, well, lost.

Governor Romney’s comments were not just damaging because of the divisive implications:  he also found a way to alienate part of his base.  Seniors, who have trended Republican in the past three elections in spite of constant Republican cries for Medicare reform, now find themselves in a bind because they fall into the same category I feel that I’ve fallen into.  I’ll still support the Governor in the end, but pissing off the base is about as useful to a political campaign as fumbling the snap is in football.  If there is anything the Republicans need to show up in droves in November, it is the political and ideological base.  If Governor Romney believes that the rich serve as his niche, then perhaps his comment is well-appointed; unfortunately, that group just does not carry the weight necessary to carry the popular vote.

Republicans will discuss back and forth over the next couple weeks as to how exactly to field the reaction to Governor Romney’s comments.  Some will attempt to forget them, others defend them tirelessly.  Others (like me) will plead for Governor Romney to watch his mouth.  In the context of a presidential election as crucial as the one in November, any divisive slip-up will perpetuate the “Divider-in-Chief’s” (borrowing this brilliant term from Kate Obenshain - http://www.humanevents.com/2012/09/10/obenshain-obama-is-the-divider-in-chief/) reign over not only the White House, but the metaphorical driver’s seat on re-uniting the sides of the American political spectrum.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Reading Beyond Borders


by Rick Hill

Not all of it is Greek to me... just a headline and a few words...
Since the beginning of the War on Terror, Americans and Europeans have been at odds, to say the least, about American culture and the role of the United States on the global scene.  Pick up a copy of The Guardian, Die Welt, Le Monde, O Globo, The Times of India, or publications from whichever country you choose, and you will find anti-American editorials and/or coverage of anti-American political action abroad.  As the primary recipients of the criticisms, members of the American Right struggle to skim even the news section while they sift through the paper.  As a result, most readers prefer to remain stateside to get their news.
I write this piece today to suggest a new approach to my fellow Republicans:  stop being afraid of foreign opinion.  Not everyone hates us.  Here is how I got to this point:

Remember that the United States still has allies in the world.  In most cases, European right-wing newspapers and online sources are going to support at least some American initiatives in the world and are worth reading against the conventional anti-American screed written elsewhere.

Many of you might have experience reading a British periodical (many of my political science professors have suggested either The Economist or The Guardian, neither of which come to my surprise).  You might have found articles such as these, should you have visited the opinion website:  “Mitt Romney is too rational for a deluded Republican base (Guardian),” or “Mitt Romney’s problems:  Elite defection (Economist).”  In spite of the headlines (and the comments, if you choose to peruse them), it takes a well-read individual to understand that, like in the United States, other countries have a variety of periodicals that cover the spectrum.  To my friends on the right, I would suggest The Telegraph (www.telegraph.co.uk), a prominent right-leaning newspaper based in London.  While I do not mix well with its pro-European editorials, it also gives space for Eurosceptics such as Daniel Hannan, of Youtube fame (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs).  These opinions, though full of language and terms understandably foreign to Americans, still give a set of metaphorical water wings to the readers as they broaden their horizons.  Keeping to the Anglosphere, I also suggest Australia’s Daily Telegraph (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au), Canada’s Toronto Sun (http://www.torontosun.com/) and South Africa’s Sunday Times, specifically the politics section (http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/).  Pointing these out leads me to the next conclusion:

Foreign opinions matter because they often give insight from perspectives that American writers miss.
Smacking down Marxism, Brazilian style!

One of my favorite foreign political commentators is the Brazilian philosopher Olavo de Carvalho (www.olavodecarvalho.org/english), and I found him through my frustration with Brazilian politics, having studied it the past couple years.  For those with little to no background on Brazil, the country has been under firm control of the left since 2003, but still operates under a largely backward political structure.  Political clientelism runs rampant, no matter which side takes control.  Olavo writes as a ruthless critic of political leftism, pointing out errors and fallacies through his weekly radio show, True Outspeak.  He also gives insight on the American political scene, as he lives and operates today out of Virginia.  Regardless, Olavo gives opinions from a Latin American perspective, which integrates opinions on political culture that we Americans are not accustomed to seeing.  Tim Stanley, from Britain’s Daily Telegraph (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/timstanley/), is another favorite.  One of the first steps you can take, as a conservative committed to being better-read, is to pick two foreign authors and mull over what they write.  They will help you understand not only international anti-American opinion better, but also gain a new perspective on American politics that you may not have conceived in the past.  With that, a final point:

Reading foreign opinion gets you out of the “grid.”

I could have lumped this point into the previous one, but I wanted to explain separately the pitfalls of limiting yourself to only American opinion.  It is true that the right and the left hold divergent opinions in the United States, like any other country, but our prominent issues are not issues in other countries.  Take Brazil, for example:  how do you structure the abortion debate in a country where abortion is illegal, except in cases of rape or incest?  Moreover, how can we criticize President Obama’s healthcare law without gaining opinions and insight from foreigners who have fallen victim to a universal healthcare system?  In a debate concerning issues rather than ideology, the foreign angle is vital to applying the concepts of a new law on our society.  Although we do not always share the same cultural values as France or Brazil or India or Australia, the effects of reform still have economic consequences that any sensible conservative can see and apply to our current situation.

I appeal to my fellow conservatives by simply saying that the American story does not always tell the whole story.  Consider picking up a foreign publication this week, and see what you can find.  Sometimes the opinions of a Telegraph, a Financial Times or a Sun can help to shape a well-founded opinion just as much as the Wall Street Journal or the American Spectator.  Food for thought.

Monday, September 24, 2012

The Fallacy of the Welfare State

by Josh Guckert


Conservatives and Republicans are constantly vilified as heartless, evil monsters when they propose austerity measures. My liberal friends often ask me, “How can you put someone out in the cold when they have nothing to live on?” It doesn’t help that conservatives usually don’t make their own case very well either. The top argument in favor of cutting welfare payments is often that there is some “welfare queen” who is cheating the system and loafing around on others’ tax dollars. Mitt Romney recently exacerbated this misconception when he said (as out of context as it may be) that he “doesn’t care about the very poor,” because they have a safety net. I feel it’s important for Americans to know that not only is it the most economical plan to cut public assistance (or even eliminate it entirely), but it is the most moral as well.
Get a man this excited about fishing, and he'll feed a community...?
The old adage goes that, “If you give a man a fish, you’ll feed him for a day, but if you teach him how to fish, you’ll feed him for a lifetime.” No other quote perfectly synopsizes how I feel about poor relief quite as well as that one. By subsidizing poverty, we are not helping to eliminate it, but rather, we are perpetuating it. Those receiving the payments are the true victims. They never get the opportunity to practice self-reliance, and therefore become just another cog in the machine that results in roughly a third of those on welfare being comprised of second generation recipients. And still, 15% of the country remains below the poverty line, even as big government doubles-down on its initiatives.
Believe it or not, welfare is not that old of an institution in the United States. It was prominently introduced by Franklin Roosevelt in 1935 to combat the Great Depression. The new government expansion eliminated any need for private-sector companies like the Women’s Christian Association and the Charity Organization Society, which had existed to do the same job. Even with this act of “compassion,” the U.S. suffered through unemployment above 20% for the rest of the decade. We will never know what might have happened had FDR been willing to put his trust in the free market and the good faith of American individuals and charities.
That brings us to the largest misperception about what would happen without welfare. Many seem to think that, without help from the government, the streets would be filled with homeless people, slowly starving to death. But in reality, we would not suddenly see Americans en masse, in the streets begging. Without the government to bail them out, it is only human nature for people to do what is necessary to live and prosper. Instead of sitting back while working minimal hours and waiting on a government check, a man might realize he’d better look long and hard for a second job if he wants to keep his electric on. As a result, he would gain life experience he would have never had otherwise, and would improve society as a whole.
As alluded to earlier, not everyone would be able to prosper on his own. And that is where soup kitchens, food banks, private charities, and churches would come into play. It is well known that Americans are some of the most compassionate and caring people on this planet. With citizens now having more faith in the tax system and better knowing the way in which their money is being spent, not only would they feel more inclined to help, they would also have to pay less in taxes, resulting in them having more discretionary income to give to the charities that help the poor. Citizens would no longer have to worry about someone “cheating the system,” or think that they should hold their money when someone asks for a little help, because the government should have them covered. By eliminating welfare and other public assistance programs, we would save our government billions of dollars, and create a better society, where every American can live, prosper, and better him or herself.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Puerto Rican Statehood: The Real Challenges

by Brian Witt



The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico has been in the news quite a bit lately, due to it having just held its presidential primary election.  While Puerto Ricans cannot vote in the U.S. presidential election, both Republicans and Democrats allow residents of the island to elect delegates to their national conventions.  Mitt Romney won the primary with an overwhelming 83% of the vote, but most of the media attention was caused by Rick Santorum's contention that Puerto Rican statehood was undesirable, because English is not the official language of the island and would create linguistic conflicts with the mainland. This comment cost Santorum dearly, as the vast majority of those who identify with the GOP on Puerto Rico are members of the New Progressive Party, which advocates strongly for admittance as the 51st state.

While Santorum was widely (and correctly) criticized for his remarks, what would the impact of Puerto Rican statehood be, both for the island and the rest of the United States?  To understand this issue, we must first examine Puerto Rico's current, unique status within the United States.  Since 1917, Puerto Ricans have been full citizens of the United States, and any who move off the island to the mainland have the same legal rights and responsibilities as any other U.S. citizen.  Since 1952, Puerto Rico has been known as a "Free Associated State," a status in-between full statehood and independence, which is similar (though not identical) to the statuses of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Under the FAS, Puerto Ricans have most of the rights of mainland citizens, such as constitutional protections and liberties, full use of the U.S. federal court system, protection of the military and federal agencies, and representation abroad through the Department of State. The major differences between Puerto Rico and any state are political representation and taxation. Puerto Ricans (who have their own fully functional commonwealth legislature and governor) cannot vote in presidential elections, and instead of electing congressmen and senators, can send one non-voting delegate to Congress. However, Puerto Ricans are also exempt from federal income taxes.  Corporations doing business with entities other than the U.S. government are also exempt from a variety of federal taxes and regulations. At the same time, Puerto Ricans are not eligible for a variety of social welfare programs; for instance, Medicaid spending is capped at 15% of what it would be if Puerto Rico was a full state.

Thus the implications for Puerto Rican statehood would be largely two-fold:  firstly, what effect would it have upon federal elections and political processes; and secondly, what would the effects be on federal tax revenue and expenditures?  It is challenging to predict how Puerto Rico would vote in elections since it has its own vibrant two-and-a-half party system, with supporters of statehood largely backing the mainland GOP, continuing the FAS backing Democrats, and the remainder of independence supporters largely ignoring mainland politics.  On the whole the statehood and GOP supporting NPP has been more successful lately, which should give Republicans hope. In addition, Puerto Ricans tend to be extremely anti-abortion and socially conservative in general, which would align them more with the GOP.  On the other hand, Puerto Ricans in the U.S. tend to vote Democratic, either strongly so (New York) or slightly (Florida) depending on the state they live in.  Additionally, the increasingly hardline stance taken by Republicans in the South and Southwest towards Hispanic immigrants would probably not endear the party to Puerto Ricans, even if immigration issues are much less salient than among Mexican-Americans.

Puerto Ricans would probably benefit from statehood, even if the U.S. Treasury would not.  While Puerto Rican residents would now be liable for federal income taxes, the low levels of per-capita income would leave most Puerto Ricans with no income tax liability whatsoever.  In 2009, the per capita income in Puerto Rico was about $19,000, extremely high for Latin America, but well below that of the poorest US state Mississippi ($36,000.) A study by the Heritage Foundation concluded that just making Puerto Ricans eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit (of which 59% would be eligible upon statehood) would cost taxpayers more than the total remitted by Puerto Ricans to the Treasury. In addition, Puerto Rico would be eligible for full Medicaid and Medicare spending, instead of just 15%, as well as all other federal social welfare programs.  Ironically, Puerto Rican statehood is far more popular on the mainland than in Puerto Rico, even though the island would quickly become per capita the largest beneficiary of social spending in the U.S.

How about one issue that would not arise with Puerto Rican statehood? You guessed it, Santorum's linguistic fears. Contrary to his statement, English is one of the two official languages of the island and a required subject in all Puerto Rican schools. Almost all islanders have some English proficiency, and over a third are fully fluent in English, a number considerably higher than Louisiana and New Mexico when they were admitted to the Union.  In the end, though it is difficult to conclude on whether Puerto Rican statehood is a certainty in the near future, the case for its admission as our nation’s 51st state is one that gains strength with each generation.


Friday, March 16, 2012

The Fallacy of a Brokered Convention: A Pitt College Republicans Special


by Casey Rankin

Over the past few months, pundits in the media have openly fantasized about a scenario where no Republican presidential candidate earns the 1,144 delegates needed to win a first ballot nomination. This would plunge Republicans into what is known as a “brokered convention”, where all 2,286 delegates are free to vote however they please. It would also mean that the Republican nominee would not be chosen until August 30th, which most political experts regard as being catastrophically late.


If you are a Republican and the above paragraph frightens you, worry not, the media is full of dramatic amateurs, who are ignorant of party rules, state by state polling,basic arithmetic, and intellectual honesty. Based on those factors, it is clear that Governor Mitt Romney will clinch the 1,144 delegates needed for nomination prior to the convention. Here we will go through each state, and based on party rules and available polling, attempt to make a realistic delegate allocation projection.

Current Delegate Count (As of March 14th)
Romney: 496
Santroum: 236
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 67


March 17th
Missouri Caucus: 52 Delegates Non-Binding Caucus (Proportional)

In the Missouri beauty contest vote held in early February, Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney 55%-25%. Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot however, and he will be for the caucus. So if we assume that
Gingrich peels 15% off of Santorum's total, we are left with results similar to what we saw in neighboring Kansas, with Santorum winning 40%-25%-15%. So taking the most negative possible projection for Romney, we can predict the delegates to be proportioned as something like, Santorum 35, Romney 12, Gingrich 5.

New Delegate Count
Romney: 508
Santorum: 271
Gingrich: 146

March 18th
Puerto Rico Caucus: 23 Delegates Winner Take All

Given that Romney has won commanding majorities among Hispanics in every state or territory with a measurable sample, and has the endorsement of popular Puerto Rican Governor Luis Fortuno, he should win a lopsided victory here.

New Delegate Count
Romney: 531
Santorum: 271
Gingrich: 146

March 20th
Illinois Primary: 69 Delegates Proportional by Congressional District
The most recent poll taken in Illinois shows Romney with a 35-31 lead over Santorum. Gingrich and Paul poll 12 and 7 percent respectively. Romney recently went on the air with a $1 million TV purchase, something Santorum won't be able to match. Given Romney's propensity for closing strong in Midwestern states, it is impossible for me to imagine Santorum winning here, and my bet is he loses by a number in the high single digits. In projecting the delegates, we can look to Michigan, while projecting it to go slightly more in Romney's favor, so something like 41-28 in Romney's favor, again trying to be cautious.

New Delegate Count
Romney: 572
Santorum: 299
Gingrich: 146

March 24th
Louisiana Primary: 46 Delegates, Proptional

Most recently, polling showed a tight three way race: Santorum 25, Romney 21, Gingrich 20. I would expect the final results to be similar to Mississippi, where they finished 33-31-30, except for shifting some of Gingrich's support to Santorum based on momentum, for a delegate total of something like Santorum 21, Romney 15, Gingrich 10.

New Delegate Count
Romney 587
Santorum 320
Gingrich 156

April 3rd
Wisconsin Primary: 42 Delegates, Winner Take All
Maryland Primary: 37 Delegates, Winner Take All
Washington D.C: 19 Delegates, Winner Take All

These three winner take all contests provide major opportunity for delegate pickups. Rick Santorum failed to qualify for the ballot in D.C, meaning those 19 delegates should easily go to Romney. Based on Maryland's ideology and demographics, which closely resemble New England, where Romney has yet to lose, it is tough to envision it going to Santorum, making those 37 delegates likely to go to Romney. Wisconsin is a bit tougher to project, but since the two closest states to them geographically and demographically, Ohio and Michigan, went to Romney narrowly, we will predict it to follow. This day looks likely to deliver a big prize for Romney, as he garners 99 delegates, while his opponents combine for zero.

New Delegate Count
Romney 686
Santorum 320
Gingrich 156

April 24th
Pennsylvania Primary: 72 Delegates, Congressional District
New York Primary: 95 Delegates, Proportional, Winner Take All if someone reaches 50%
Connecticut Primary: 28 Delegates, Proptional, Winner Take All if someone reaches 50%
Rhode Island Primary: 19 Delegates, Proportional
Delaware Primary: 17 Delegates, Winner Take All

On the surface, April 24th should be an outstanding day for Mitt Romney. To start with the small states, Romney will certainly win Delaware, giving him all of their 17 delegates. He will likely win Rhode Island with a percentage well over 50%, and where Ron Paul will likely finish in second, so being generous to Paul, we project a 13-6 split. I expect this case to also hold true in Connecticut, except that it becomes winner take all if someone is over 50%, which I would expect Romney to reach, giving him all 28 of their delegates. While no polling is available in these three states, Romney has yet to lose in a single New England state, and his margins have generally grown throughout the campaign. New York is also likely to give him a big boost. While the most recent poll shows Romney up only 38-31 over Santorum, the substantial number of undecideds figure to break Romney's way, especially when one consider that Romney and McCain combined for about 75% of the New York Primary vote in 2008. This may be an optimistic hedge, but Romney seems likely to edge 50% of the vote, giving him the big delegate prize of the night with 95 delegates. In Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania, Santorum currently leads by 18 points, a margin I would expect to tighten. However, to give Santorum the benefit of the doubt, lets project that margin holds, and he wins 45 of the 72 delegates, with the other 27 going for Romney. That gives us a nightly total of Romney 180, Santorum 45, Paul 6.

New Delegate Count
Romney 866
Santorum 365
Gingrich 156
Paul 73

May 8
North Carolina Primary: 55 Delegates, Proportional
Indiana Primary: 46 Delegates , Congressional District
West Virginia: 31 Delegates, Congressional District

After a brutal month, Santorum returns to more friendly territory. Given its proximity to Pennsylvania, its ultra conservative and impoverished demographic, I expect Santorum to sweep West Virginia, with Gingrich and Romney perhaps earning a few delegates, so project that as Santorum 25, Gingrich 4, Romney 2. Indiana should follow the pattern of most Midwestern states, which have gone for Romney by narrow margins. Also consider the fact that Santorum has gone through a brutal month, where he has only won one primary. So figure those delegates split in half, with each winning 23. North Carolina should be the most favorable for Romney, as its demographic has begun to look more like Florida than the other Southern states. I would still expect it to be close, but with Romney winning a delegate victory of about 25-20-10 (Romney-Santorum-Gingrich). Overall, it looks like Santorum has the advantage for the night, but not by much, with the following tally: Santorum 58, Romney 50, Gingrich 14.

New Delegate Count
Romney 916
Santorum 423
Gingrich 170

May 15
Nebraska Primary: 35 Delegates
Oregon Primary: 28 Delegates, Proportional

Nebraska is very typical of the states Santorum has done well in, and I would expect him to win a percentage near 50, making it likely he will carry virtually all of the states 35 delegates. Oregon figures to follow Washington, which was a close contest between Romney and Paul. It is also purely proportional, so Santorum might pull out a delegate or two. That one I would project something like 14-12-2 (Romney-Paul-Santorum). May 15th ends with a tally of, Santorum 37, Romney 14, Paul 12.

New Delegate Count
Romney 930
Santorum 460
Gingrich 170
Paul 85

May 22nd
Kentucky Primary: 45 Delegates, Proportional
Arkansas Primary: 36 Delegates, Proportional

While this landscape is favorable to Santorum, the proportional rules make it unlikely he will amass a significant delegate advantage. Kentucky seems to fall into Santorum's region of strength, so I think he will get something like a 25-12-8 advantage from it (Santorum-Gingrich-Romney). Arkansas figures to be a bit more Gingrich friendly, resulting in a closer three way race with the delegates being split 13-12-11 (Santorum-Gingrich-Romney). This gives us a tally of Santorum 38, Gingrich 24, Romney 19.

New Delegate Count
Romney 949
Santorum 498
Gingrich 194
Paul 85

May 29th
Texas Primary, 155 Delegates, Proportional

The most recent Texas polling has Romney leading Santorum 32-30, with Gingrich at 19. If these numbers don't shift dramatically, then the delegates will be split heavily, with Romney winning around 65 , Santorum about 60 and maybe 30 for Gingrich. At this point Romney is in range of the delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the convention.

New Delegate Count
Romney 1,014
Santorum 558
Gingrich 224
Paul 85

June 5th
California Primary: 172 Delegates, Winner Take All by Congressional District
New Jersey Primary: 50 Delegates, Winner Take All
South Dakota Primary: 28 Delegates, Proportional
Montana Primary: 26 Delegates, Proportional
New Mexico: 23 Delegates, Proportional

If the delegate estimates I have made to this point are even in the ball park, Romney is certain to lock up the nomination by June 5th. He leads in California by over 20 points. With a lead that large it seems impossible that Santorum leads in any district. To be as fair and conservative as possible, I will just posit that he wins 4 of the states 53 districts for a delegate total of around 15, leaving Romney with 157, putting him over 1,144 and making him the 2012 Republican Nominee for President of the United States. New Jersey is a guaranteed Romney win, giving him all fifty of their delegates. South Dakota and Montana are both likely to go to Santorum by insubstantial margins, perhaps by a combined 28-22-2-2 (Santorum-Romney-Gingrich-Paul). New Mexico is likely to go overwhelmingly to Romney so give him about 17 delegates to 5 for Santorum. That puts our nightly total at :Romney 246, Santorum 48, Gingrich 2, Paul 2.

New Delegate Count
Romney 1,260, Republican Nominee
Santorum 606
Gingrich 226
Paul 87

June 26th
Utah Primary: 40 Delegates, Winner Take All

Romney will win the Mormon State by over 90% of the vote. He will easily capture all 40 of the state's delegates.

Final Delegate Count
Romney 1,300, Republican Nominee
Santorum 606
Gingrich 226
Paul 87

In closing, while he is unlikely to do it before June, Romney should easily clear the 1,144 delegates necessary to be nominated on the first ballot of the convention. I project him finishing 156 delegates above the threshold, meaning that unless I made a massive mistake somewhere, he will be above what is needed to avoid any complaints about rules, procedure etc. at the convention. What is demonstrated even more clearly is that Santorum, and Gingrich, are unable to reach the threshold, and that all they can do is hope to throw the contest to a brokered convention, something that is unbelievably deleterious to the party's goal of defeating Barack Obama.  

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Warren G. Harding: America's Most Underrated President


by Casey Rankin

“Warren Harding was our worst president.” The previous declaration is one that egghead academics have uttered countless times over the course of the past 90 years, and one that is patently false, and intellectually lazy. When one takes the time to look at the entire record of the Harding Administration, they will find it filled with monumental achievements. The president's policies served as a modernizing and transformative force for America during the early 1920's.

“We need to cut spending,” is a refrain heard from presidential candidates in every election since the dawn of our republic. Unlike virtually everyone who has said this, President Harding actually did cut spending, and cut it dramatically, from $6.3 billion in 1920, to $3.3 billion in 1922. This was in large part due to his signing of the Budget and Accounting Act of 1921, which created the Bureau of the Budget ( he precursor to the Office of Management and Budget). Additionally, President Harding also signed legislation in 1922 that included some of the sharpest across the board tax cuts in American history, lowering the top marginal income rate from 73% to 25%. Harding also signed the Revenue Act in 1921, which cut the corporate tax rate from 65% to 50%. These supply side cuts actually resulted in an increase of tax revenue, and helped to cut the national debt by one third.

In addition to cutting taxes and spending, Harding helped modernize the American economy with significant investment in infrastructure, when he signed the Highway Act in 1921, helping to establish some of the first modern roads. He was also the first president to invest in preventive medicine, by signing the Sheppard-Towner Maternity Act in 1921, which required doctors to regularly examine healthy pregnant women and children to keep them from getting sick.

Along with his economic achievements, Harding was the most pro-civil rights president since Abraham Lincoln. He was the first 20th Century President to advocate political, educational, and economic equality for African Americans, and followed up on that ideal by appointing several to federal positions. Harding also spoke in favor of anti-lynching legislation, pledging to sign the Dyer Bill, which would have increased penalties on those convicted of lynching. The bill met defeat in the Senate due to a Democratic filibuster.

Most famously, Harding signed legislation establishing the Veteran's Bureau, which eventually evolved into the Department of Veteran's Affairs. This legislation modernized America's approach to taking care of its returning soldiers, allowing 300,000 World War I veterans to receive needed medical care, and helped to open up educational opportunities for them.

Finally, Harding provided leadership on another important front: our freedom to party. Harding openly defied the Volstead Act during Prohibition, by drinking whiskey during his poker games and serving wine to White House guests at formal dinners. This act of leadership helped embolden Americans to ignore one of the most unpatriotic and un-American laws in our nation's history and contributed to the “Roaring Twenties” atmosphere of the decade.

To conclude, Harding's two years in office were filled with more accomplishments than most presidents achieve in eight. His supply side economic agenda helped stimulate one of the most robust periods of growth in American history. His policies helped cut the federal budget in half, and reduced our debt by a third. He was one of the first presidents to invest heavily in infrastructure, which helped modernize the American economy. His advocacy for Veteran's Affairs helped many returning soldiers receive the care they needed. He had the patriotic audacity to personally reject the absurdity and insanity that was Prohibition, and encouraged his countryman to do the same. With all of these facts taken into account, only a foolish stooge could call Harding a failed president, despite the corruption of a handful of his subordinates. Harding's low standing amongst historians is due to intellectual laziness, and nothing more. He was enormously popular in his time, winning the election with over 60% of the popular vote, and was seen as a shoo-in for reelection before his death, as his contemporaries saw the direct benefit from his leadership. If we could elect a president in 2012 who was able to cut the federal budget in half, reduce our national debt by a third, and stimulate a decade of robust economic growth, we would leap for joy, and probably ignore any corruption with gleeful ignorance. In other words, America could use another Warren G. Harding.

Monday, March 12, 2012

The Cult of the Presidency

by Sean Drummond



There has been a tremendous debate throughout our country’s history on how the Office of the Presidency should function, and in particular just how much power should be given to the President.   This was one of the central issues that faced our Founding Fathers, and even today is a topic of debate among various scholars.  I agree with Gene Healy of the Cato Institute that America has been consumed by a “Cult of the Presidency”.  This term is used to describe the issue of expanding Presidential powers that our country has witnessed over the last few decades. With the growing influence that the President has gained, many American citizens have become enamored with the office, and look towards the Commander-in-Chief in times of peril and flourish.  I think that the general public certainly desires (and somewhat expects) the President to solve problems on a wide range of scales, both large and small.
With the growing influence of the office come more responsibilities.  In recent years especially, we have seen the President take on issues of a massive variety and wide scale.  A prominent example comes to mind when former President George Bush was expected to acknowledge the issue that former Vice President Al Gore made very public:  global warming.  Not only did Bush need to make the decisions to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but he also had to decide the best strategy to pursue with the conflict in Iraq.  This exemplifies the wide change in dynamics that the American people expect the President to deal with.
When the public thinks of politics, it focuses mainly on the President.  The public does not understand, or I think care enough, to learn a great deal about the House or the Senate, important parts of the political puzzle.  I would go as far as to contend that the average American citizen knows more about the President’s personal life then can even name five members of Congress!  A large part of this “Cult of the Presidency” is the idea that most citizens put blame on the President for failure to get legislation passed, and don’t consider the difficulties that Presidents face when negotiating with Congress.  Sometimes this underestimation of Congress can even be traced back to Presidents themselves.  During an interview with President Truman during his last night in office, he indicated that Eisenhower would expect the Presidency to work just like the military, where those at the top would give orders and expect compliance.  Truman concluded the interview by saying, “Poor Ike, he’ll find it very frustrating. He will give orders and nothing will happen.” Part of this problem is the media and the attention that they give to the president.  They almost treat him as a celebrity.  They stress coverage on the wrong items, very little on legislation and a lot on their personal life.  An example can be found with how much press was given to the dog that the Obama family received upon moving into the White House, or how women across the country kept close watch on the fashion sense of Jackie Kennedy.

We're just not that efficient, Ike...

I believe that these exaltations of the President started relatively recently. One of the first recent Presidents to have an entire nation looking upon them in a time of need was Franklin Roosevelt.  He was a very charismatic public speaker who was adored by many within the nation for his Great Depression relief programs he put into place, collectively known as the “New Deal”. His New Deal legislation greatly expanded the government and connected with people on an emotional level, since many of their futures were now in the hands of Roosevelt.  His great popularity and trust from the American people to guide the nation through crises like the Great Depression and World War II, led him to be the only president to be elected to 4 terms in office, which before that time and even today is unheard of.