Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Notes on the Michigan/Arizona Primaries

by the Editors


So the group met up around 9:30 (after everyone finished their meetings and night classes) to comment a bit on the Michigan and Arizona primaries.  Sorry for not getting the Arizona info... it was already decided by the time this group met!



9:38 pm:  Santorum's underperforming so far in the counties of western Michigan where he was expected to win big.  Take Ottawa County, for example:  this particular county, historical home to scores of arch-conservative Dutch Calvinists in the late-19th century, gave Mike Huckabee the most support of any Michigan county in 2008.  With less than 50% reporting, Santorum has not crossed the 50% threshold necessary for us to say he has the county under control.

9:48 pm:  We've hit 50% of precincts reporting.  Romney has a comfortable four-point lead.  If he keeps this margin, and more precincts report consistently in the future, Romney will begin to pull away from Santorum.

9:54 pm:  It's been reported that Romney is doing better among Michigan Catholics than Santorum.  In conjunction, Santorum is performing better among self-professed "liberal Democrats" than Catholics.  Here are some links to help drive the point home:
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Michigan-Catholics-prefer-Mormon-Mitt-Romney-to-Catholic-Rick-Santorum-140545573.html
http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2012/02/yes_michigan_democrats_are_vot.html

10:00 pm:  Props to the Michigan Department of State for reporting 61% of ballots by 10:00.  In comparison, Maine took a week to count 5,000 votes.  The Iowa caucuses took all week to formally count the ballots and still got it wrong, originally.  Whoever's running State over in Lansing, we tip our hats.

10:03 pm:  Fox News interviewing Jan Brewer, talking about her Romney endorsement.  Fun fact... Santorum has no endorsement from any former or current state governor yet.

10:09 pm:  Santorum giving a speech already?  Wow, giving a concession speech this early is a bad sign, especially when the race is still "too close to call."  He's still got that spirit that he's come from absolutely nothing... perhaps it might be a little late in the race, at this point.  The punditry certainly proves otherwise, over the past month.

10:17 pm:  Fox News calls the primary.  Romney wins.  CNN calls the primary 90 seconds later.  Romney wins.  These editors conclude that the night is over.  Concluding remarks going around the room... "a dominant showing by Republican frontrunner (and Pitt CR-endorsed candidate), Mitt Romney, for sure."  "Well, I guess the Dems didn't get their way..."  Have a good night, everyone.

Rick Santorum and the Republican Primary Voter

by Brian Witt


On Saturday, Rick Santorum said that President Barack Obama is a "snob," who is encouraging young people to go to college in in order to "indoctrinate" them and that decent, hardworking people didn't need "leftist" college professors to be successful.


This struck most observers as profoundly odd, as the U.S. has long differentiated itself from its Western European counterparts by succesfully encouraging a much larger percentage of its students to go on to attain a post-secondary degree. Thus Santorum's statement that more people should be content to "work with their hands" instead of obtaining an "elitist" degree sounds much more like the typical European welfare state than America.

Republicans have won college educated voters in every election since the 1960s, although Democrats do somewhat better with voters who display post-graduate degrees, most of whom tend to be concentrated in academia and the government.  Republican presidential candidates have also consistently won voters who earn more than $100,000 a year, the lion's share of those being college educated.
Hm...

In other words, if Republicans are the party pf college educated, higher income Americans, why would a candidate for the GOP nomination set out to dismiss higher education and align so closely with the traditionally Democratic working class?   Because Santorum knows his voter base and indeed the growing base of the Republican Party in general.


Despite the trouble caused by his poor debate performance and recent verbal gaffes, there is a real chance that Santorum can win Michigan today and will be very competitive in several of the Super Tuesday states.  He has remained competitive against Romney by appealing to the growing number of Republican primary voters motivated by cultural instead of economic arguments. These voters care far more about sex education than marginal tax rates, and they see Romney's business experience as suspect not inspiring.
Some just aren't getting the joke...


They see the boogeyman of "elite snobs" everywhere, encouraged by a conservative media echo-chamber which devotes far more time to conspiracy theories about the New Black Panther Party and sharia law than actually trying to impact public policy. Where once the local Republican Party would be dominated by CEOs and doctors, the local business community motivated by civic spirit and sound economics, it has been taken over by marginally employed and education Tea Party activists, spouting what they think is Austrian economics while relying on an interpretation of the Constitution derived from a tearful radio host.

Rick Santorum, like Newt Gingrich before him, has attacked Romney by appealing to the basest instincts of the Republican Party's new working class voter base. He may well end up costing Romney the nomination, but the damage he and his fellow demagogues have done to the GOP will last far longer than this election cycle.
How about another four years from now?

Monday, February 27, 2012

Constructivism and the Global Economy

by Elizabeth Matenkoski



       When examining global economy, the two main views that Republicans will more than likely take are economic liberalism and realism.  Most people do not realize that economic liberalism is the typical conservative view regarding economics, first formulated by Adam Smith.  Famous economic liberals include Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.  Realism, on the other hand, is the belief that all actions must be done in whatever keeps the nation safest, which tends to put the military first.  This point-of-view is essential since we are living in a post 9/11 world.  Realism is also the main course that the United States generally takes when regarding foreign interests.
       One perspective when looking into global economy that many people fail to look at is the constructivist perspective.  Constructivism is very important because it takes the classic economic liberal position, but gives it more of a spine by attempting to explain why states react in the way that they do.  This mainly includes taking into account the culture of a specific state and recognizing that there is more to a nation than just politics and economics.  Realism and economic liberalism also fail to recognize the effect that non-state actors have on the global economy, including groups like al-Qaeda and Hezbollah.
       Constructivism is a noble approach in which to examine Middle Eastern affairs.  Economically, it is especially important when analyzing the oil economy.  Of course, this does not mean that the United States should ever let its guard down when dealing with a nation like Iran.  Rather, if we can understand where and why the Iranians have such great antipathy towards the United States, it would help to construct a more comprehensive approach.  Obviously Iran feels the United States stands or represents the opposite of everything that is Islam and Sharia Law (to be fair, a very strict fundamentalist interpretation), and working and making progress that ultimately lead to peace rests on these institutions.  The Iranian government’s philosophy underlies any decisions that are made, and our attitudes could benefit from greater cultural sensitivity to ensure the Iranian people’s confidence that we do not want to destroy their culture.  This approach would be much better than the economic liberal approach because Iranians would see that we are not just out to maintain that oil will continue flowing into the United States for a reasonable price.
       In the world today, it is important to understand where the decisions that states make come from.  When we know the source of a decision, we are better prepared to handle that particular state and the best course of action.  On the other hand, the United States should not abandon a realist view on the world anytime soon.  Rather, it should structure constructivism into its general realist worldview and allow a better understanding of culture play a strong influence in its quest to ensure (and augment) its own existence and global impact.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Competence over Corruption: The Case for Mitt Romney over Newt Gingrich

by Casey Rankin


On Saturday, January 21, the political world came to a shocking revelation:   Republican voters from South Carolina had lost their minds.  Bypassing any pretense of common sense, good judgment, or basic humanity, forty percent of South Carolinians came to the buffoonish conclusion that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the best possible choice to take on President Barack Obama in November.  When one stops to consider that Speaker Gingrich’s career has been characterized by traits such as lack of personal and professional discipline, his abysmal moral character, and perhaps most importantly his record of corruption, it seems his nomination represents a form of political malpractice on the part of the Republican Party. On every front, Speaker Gingrich is an embarrassment to himself and his party, and he would be the worst general election candidate in modern history.

The central rationale Speaker Gingrich offers for his nomination is his assertion that he is the best choice to stand toe-to-toe in the three televised debates with President Obama in the fall. While Gingrich has consistently performed well in the never ending train of Republican Primary debates, this is an inappropriate metric for forecasting proficiency in general election debates. Much of Gingrich’s “success” is simply due to his willingness to pander to audiences that are to the right of 90% of the electorate, as well as the joy he takes in verbally assaulting the moderators and his opponents.  Neither of these tactics seem likely to work in the more subdued general election debates, which far more moderate voters watch, who are likely to find these tactics offensive and immature.  With his most tantalizing asset largely neutralized, we are left to ponder the rest of Gingrich’s political profile.  Here is where it really starts to get ugly.

Over the course of this campaign, Gingrich has grown fond of bloviating on the “success” of his time in Congress, particularly his four-year reign as Speaker.  While his attempts to claim credit for the success of Ronald Reagan’s policies during the 1980’s as a backbench junior congressman are too narcissistic and asinine to warrant serious comment, he does bring serious accomplishments as Speaker, such as balanced budgets and welfare reform throughout the 1990’s. However, this era also highlights some of his most serious character flaws, namely his lack of discipline and character.  In 1995, Gingrich single-highhandedly lost the battle over the government shutdown with President Clinton when he remarked in an interview that he shut down the government as revenge for Clinton making Gingrich exit from the back of Air Force One at a state funeral. These kinds of wayward comments, as well as his hypocrisy in impeaching Clinton for an affair while carrying on one of his own, caused Republicans to lose House seats in both ’96 and ’98. Amidst these failures and ethics violations that lead to him being fined $300,000 by the House (the only Speaker to ever be sanctioned this severely), his fellow Republicans successfully forced him from the Speakership, leading him to resign in disgrace.  Gingrich’s erratic and failed record of leadership is further buttressed by the fact that virtually none of his former colleagues who elected him as Speaker are endorsing him for President.

Following his failed tenure as Speaker, Gingrich decided to cash in on his influence, beginning a lucrative career as a lobbyist. Most prominently, Gingrich collected $1.6 million from mortgage giant Freddie Mac. Unwilling to own up to his participation in this profession, Gingrich has cynically claimed that he was hired as a “historian” at the “modest “ price of $25,000 a month for six years. His contract clearly contradicts his claims, as he was hired by Freddie Mac's chief lobbyist, and the words “history” and “historian” are absent from the document.  In addition to his appalling lack of honesty, Gingrich’s status as a lobbyist is a severe general election liability, as it is among the public's least trusted professions. However, when it comes to Gingrich’s dishonesty, his record on lobbying is among the least of his problems.

Gingrich’s personal life is an unmitigated disaster of his own creation.  From serving his cancer stricken first wife with divorce papers in 1981, to asking his second wife, newly diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis, for an open marriage in 1998, Gingrich has distinguished himself as a repulsive and shameful excuse for a human being. While he can blame these problems on the “lamestream media” in the primary, general election voters will look past his weak excuses and judge him for the shameful personal life he has led, especially considering the disingenuous attack he lead on President Clinton in the late 90's for his extramarital adventures.  Character matters in politics, and Gingrich has less than any person who has ever served in the Oval Office.

With all of this evidence taken together its summation is a simple one:  Gingrich is incapable of winning the presidency. This is confirmed by decades worth of polling: in no survey taken throughout his political career has Gingrich ever surpassed a 43% approval rate, while consistently possessing unfavorable ratings of 55-60%. Even more troubling, Gingrich possesses nearly 100% name recognition, meaning that these numbers will be almost impossible to reverse. These ratings carry over to polls pitting him head to head with President Obama, as he loses to the president by an average of 11 points according to Real Clear Politics, despite the president's mediocre approval rating of 46%.  Gingrich’s toxic candidacy would be catastrophic for Republican candidates running for any office in 2012, and would likely result in our losing the House and failing to recapture the Senate. With our country facing historic economic and international challenges, the Republican Party cannot afford to nominate an erratic, corrupt, degenerate lobbyist to oppose this failed president. We must nominate someone who understands the economy, who has worked in the private sector, who has a record of successful leadership (particularly as an executive), and who has unblemished character who can appeal to the middle of the road voters who will decide this election.

Fortunately for Republicans, such a candidate exists. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney checks all of these boxes, having started one of the most successful private equity firms in the country, Bain Capital, who under Romney's leadership invested in companies such as Staples, Sports Authority, Steel Dynamics, and Domino's Pizza, which employ hundreds of thousands of people. In 2002, Romney successfully turned around the failing 2002 Olympics, making it the most profitable Olympics in history. As Massachusetts governor, Romney balanced four consecutive budgets without increasing taxes on individuals or businesses, cut taxes 19 times, created a rainy day fund, and left the state with a 4.7% unemployment rate. Romney's first rate character is evidenced by his marriage of over forty years to his wife, and the absence of any scandal either public or private in his career. All of these attributes have been born out in polling, as Governor Romney is in a statistical tie with President Obama. It is clear to all but the most ignorant that Romney is the only credible challenger to the president, making it our patriotic duty to nominate him.

Now is the time for Republicans to choose competence over corruption, decency over degeneracy, record over rhetoric, and success over scandal. It is time for Republicans to choose Mitt Romney over Newt Gingrich.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

The Occupy Movement: What Are They Doing Wrong?

by Colin Jones



                 Last Wednesday I was enjoying my weekly Taco Bell burrito below Towers when I heard somebody scream, “Sound off!”  A handful of others in the area echoed the voice.  I assumed at that point that I was in the middle of some sort of improv-everywhere type of thing.  About thirty seconds later I realized that the screaming was that of the Occupy Pittsburgh movement simply announcing a meeting later in the week, after, of course, telling us to occupy our education.  Immediately afterwards, I can only describe my emotions as that of shock and confusion.  Mostly I was shocked because after rattling off the list of things we should occupy, neither Taco Bell nor my burrito had made the list.  I was confused as well by the largely ineffective strategy of screaming at people until they join a given cause. 
                This strategy proved to be ineffective in two ways.  First, in the middle of their verbal barrage, a kid next to me stood up and screamed “Shut the hell up!” (well, he used a stronger third word, but you get the point).  The second reason why it was ineffective was that I honestly couldn’t remember a damned thing they said.  Maybe try handing out flyers? Like they say, “Take a picture. It lasts longer.”
                But let’s go back to the first point.  Screaming your message is not a great way to convince others to join you.  Frankly it makes you look crazy.  I would be much more interested in hearing what they have to say at a table up in Tower’s lobby.  Most radical movements make the same basic mistakes: they are overly aggressive and often inconsistent in their preaching.
                Now, the fact that I was at Taco Bell is important not just to show you that I have terrible taste in Mexican cuisine.  Half of the students advertising the Occupy Pittsburgh group were eating Taco Bell! In all seriousness, it’s not all that shocking because, well, it’s pretty damn delicious.  What is shocking about it is that one of the main tenets of the Occupy movement is the opposition of corporations.  Allegations levied against “corporations” by the movement include: “poisoning the food supply…sought to strip workers of the right to negotiate for better pay…etc.”  I love Taco Bell as much as the next guy; however, the chain is in fact operated by the Fortune 500 Corporation Yum! Brands Inc.  So let’s get this straight. “Down with the corporations… so long as they don’t sell warm, yummy, delicious comfort foods.”  Sounds about right.  Furthermore this Taco Bell is in the very university you’ve just asked me to occupy?!  Please.
                The problem with the movement is that it lacks a true identity.  It covers such a broad spectrum of complaints (without offering solutions) that the movement as a whole appeals to only a small group of people.  To most of us, myself included, the Occupy movement, taken on the whole, comes off as an angry mob of people screaming a message they are not quite sure how to convey…or how to define.

Monday, February 20, 2012

The Minimum Wage Myth

by Josh Guckert



In 1935, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt proposed a brand new concept to the United States: the federal minimum wage. Originally deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938 reinstituted Roosevelt’s $0.25 an hour mandate, a little over $4 in today’s money. Since then, every U.S. President except Ronald Reagan has increased this hourly requirement. It now stands at $7.25, nearly doubling the standard FDR set when he came up with the idea. Moreover, President Obama has said in the past that he wishes to increase the minimum wage to $9.50!
As great as it may sound, we must ask ourselves: does this government mandate actually help the lower-income workers it sets out to help? Deeper inspection tells us no. In fact, between 80% and 90% of economists say that increasing the minimum wage actually increases unemployment among youth and low-skilled workers. The reason is simple: when a business has only a select amount of capital to spend on lower level workers, it must use that capital wisely. When big government says it wishes to help poor Americans by increasing the minimum wage, it is simply out of touch with reality. Every time the wage is raised, the companies must make a decision on who to keep and who is expendable.
Those who raise the minimum wage seem to think that a company where 100 unskilled workers make $5 each will be able to easily turn into a company where 100 workers making $10 each. However, the truth is much grimmer. That same company would actually consist of 50 workers, with the other half being laid off to make up for the wage increases that the lucky ones received. So instead of raising every worker’s salary from $5 to $10, legislators actually decrease quite a few salaries from $5 to $0.  Having no experience in other fields, these newly unemployed will also have a hard time finding a new job, since employers will be hesitant to pay such a high price for on-the-job training. There is no need to fret, however, because many of the same legislators who passed the new minimum wage will be eager to place these unemployables on another favorite program of theirs: welfare.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

First Post



Welcome to the "unofficial" blog of the University of Pittsburgh College Republicans!  From time to time we'll try to post articles and entries on what people in the club are up to (and writing about) politically.  Feel free to offer comments and suggestions, as we're all kinda new to this blog thing.  Regardless, enjoy the articles, and let us know what you think!  If you're a College Republican and want to have an entry published on the site, please email Rick at rjh49@pitt.edu. Thanks, guys!