Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Notes on the Michigan/Arizona Primaries

by the Editors


So the group met up around 9:30 (after everyone finished their meetings and night classes) to comment a bit on the Michigan and Arizona primaries.  Sorry for not getting the Arizona info... it was already decided by the time this group met!



9:38 pm:  Santorum's underperforming so far in the counties of western Michigan where he was expected to win big.  Take Ottawa County, for example:  this particular county, historical home to scores of arch-conservative Dutch Calvinists in the late-19th century, gave Mike Huckabee the most support of any Michigan county in 2008.  With less than 50% reporting, Santorum has not crossed the 50% threshold necessary for us to say he has the county under control.

9:48 pm:  We've hit 50% of precincts reporting.  Romney has a comfortable four-point lead.  If he keeps this margin, and more precincts report consistently in the future, Romney will begin to pull away from Santorum.

9:54 pm:  It's been reported that Romney is doing better among Michigan Catholics than Santorum.  In conjunction, Santorum is performing better among self-professed "liberal Democrats" than Catholics.  Here are some links to help drive the point home:
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Michigan-Catholics-prefer-Mormon-Mitt-Romney-to-Catholic-Rick-Santorum-140545573.html
http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2012/02/yes_michigan_democrats_are_vot.html

10:00 pm:  Props to the Michigan Department of State for reporting 61% of ballots by 10:00.  In comparison, Maine took a week to count 5,000 votes.  The Iowa caucuses took all week to formally count the ballots and still got it wrong, originally.  Whoever's running State over in Lansing, we tip our hats.

10:03 pm:  Fox News interviewing Jan Brewer, talking about her Romney endorsement.  Fun fact... Santorum has no endorsement from any former or current state governor yet.

10:09 pm:  Santorum giving a speech already?  Wow, giving a concession speech this early is a bad sign, especially when the race is still "too close to call."  He's still got that spirit that he's come from absolutely nothing... perhaps it might be a little late in the race, at this point.  The punditry certainly proves otherwise, over the past month.

10:17 pm:  Fox News calls the primary.  Romney wins.  CNN calls the primary 90 seconds later.  Romney wins.  These editors conclude that the night is over.  Concluding remarks going around the room... "a dominant showing by Republican frontrunner (and Pitt CR-endorsed candidate), Mitt Romney, for sure."  "Well, I guess the Dems didn't get their way..."  Have a good night, everyone.

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